Short Rates Desk
Thu, Jun 25, 2026

Notes for Thu, Jun 25, 2026

Morning brief

This morning brief was generated but held by the desk's pre-publish checks and was not released. If a revised version clears, it will appear here.

Close brief

· generated 16:18 ET

Today is a collateral story, not a macro one, bill specials are building, not clearing

Quiet macro tape; the only fresh signal is name-specific bill scarcity in SOMA seclend, and it's grinding richer into quarter-end.

The read

Quiet macro tape, so today is a plumbing story. No data, no Fed, band sitting still, anything moving the front end is microstructure, and the only feed that printed fresh today is SOMA securities lending. Our read: collateral scarcity is building in a handful of bills, not clearing, and the milder-looking 06-25 specials list is mostly an artifact of which names happened to print.

Where the pressure sits

912797TC1 (the 12/24/26 bill) lit up at 158.1 bp on 06-24 against $4.12B accepted[1], with 912797UH8 (09/24/26) at 41.4 bp[2] the same session. Neither reprinted on the 06-25 list, which is exactly why the close looks calmer than it is, absence is not normalization.

The load-bearing name is 912797TM9 (01/21/27). It has richened every session we have: 8.0 bp on 06-22[3], 12.9 on 06-23[4], 22.1 on 06-24[5], and 25.4 on 06-25[6]. That monotonic grind is the tell. If scarcity were releasing, TM9 would have rolled over with the others, it didn't. So we trust the within-name trend over the lower headline level.

What contains it, what breaks it

Administered anchors argue this stays contained. The target band and IORB are current to 06-24[7] with no shift, so this isn't Fed repricing leaking into collateral. The catch: the funding complex, SOFR, GC repo, BGCR/TGCR, only runs to 06-23[8], a session behind the specials, so we can't yet confirm whether name-specific richness is bleeding into general collateral. That 06-24 SOFR-IORB print is the highest-value gap; get it before sizing anything.

Quarter-end on 06-30 is the driver the regular-session label hides, turn demand routinely lifts front-end repo and specials into the date, and TM9's grind reads as much like early window-dressing as deliverable scarcity. View breaks if TC1 or UH8 reprint rich next session, or if 06-24 GC firms hard versus IORB; either flips the call from name-specific to systemic. Assumes specials stay collateral-specific and the turn absorbs quietly.

Citations

  1. [1]158.1 bp on 06-24 against $4.12B accepted (912797TC1 (B 12/24/26) at 158.1 bp, $4.12B accepted) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797TC1:2026-06-24
  2. [2]912797UH8 (09/24/26) at 41.4 bp (912797UH8 (B 09/24/26) at 41.4 bp, $4.00B accepted) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797UH8:2026-06-24
  3. [3]8.0 bp on 06-22 (912797TM9 (B 01/21/27) at 8.0 bp, $1.67B accepted) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797TM9:2026-06-22
  4. [4]12.9 on 06-23 (912797TM9 (B 01/21/27) at 12.9 bp, $1.59B accepted) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797TM9:2026-06-23
  5. [5]22.1 on 06-24 (912797TM9 (B 01/21/27) at 22.1 bp, $1.55B accepted) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797TM9:2026-06-24
  6. [6]25.4 on 06-25 (912797TM9 (B 01/21/27) at 25.4 bp, $1.68B accepted) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797TM9:2026-06-25
  7. [7]The target band and IORB are current to 06-24 (IORB obs_date 2026-06-24) — FRED IORB · Jun 24, 2026
  8. [8]only runs to 06-23 (SOFR latest obs_date 2026-06-23) — NY Fed SOFR · Jun 23, 2026

Generated by Short Rates Desk. Informational only. Not investment advice.