Archive
Published notes
The 60 most recent published briefs, newest first. Morning and close for each trading day share a row.
- Tue, Jun 09, 2026Close briefFlatteners into CPI: the front-end is doing the work, the long end is along for the ride
- Mon, Jun 08, 2026Close briefCurve flatter into CPI; the geopolitics is noise, the auction tape is the signal
- Fri, Jun 05, 2026Close briefHot headline, soft guts, we fade the front-end selloff
- Thu, Jun 04, 2026Close briefAuction-week flattener: front end takes the labor-plus-oil hit, new 10Y goes deep special
- Wed, Jun 03, 2026Close briefLoud headlines, quiet tape, we fade the stagflation panic into Friday
- Mon, Jun 01, 2026Close briefAuction week opens with geopolitics stacked on supply, long-end heavy, front-end anchored
- Thu, May 28, 2026Close briefSoft core PCE m/m bought the curve a bull-steepener; sticky 3m/6m annualized says don't chase it.
- Wed, May 27, 2026Close briefFront-end bid faded into the Waller/PCE wall; belly indigestion runs through the auctions
- Mon, May 25, 2026Close briefHoliday close, but tomorrow's tape is the one to position for: supply lands on an over-shorted curve with the plumbing still leaking lower.
- Wed, May 20, 2026Close briefHawkish minutes through a clean 20Y, we add to front-end payers and watch the dealer take
- Mon, May 18, 2026Close briefStatus quo into the auction block, specials map says demand is there, we'd fade any concession.
- Fri, May 15, 2026Morning briefStay paid in the front end, cuts are dead, hike optionality is aliveClose briefLong-end bear-steepens on Hormuz; front-end funding richens, energy/term-premium shock, not a growth scare.
- Thu, May 14, 2026Morning brief30Y prints 5%, dealers eat 11.7%, we're paying up for the steepener
- Wed, May 13, 2026Morning briefCPI is the trade today; the rest is positioning around the print.Close brief30Y prints a 5-handle, we read it as term premium, not regime change
- Tue, May 12, 2026Morning briefOil into CPI into supply, front end carries the bag this week
- Mon, May 11, 2026Close briefAuction week opens quiet, specials tape is the only thing talking.
- Fri, May 08, 2026Morning briefHormuz is the trade, claims is the trigger, front-end bid stays on through the 8:30 print.
- Thu, May 07, 2026Morning briefFOMC into an Iran-headline whipsaw, we fade the front-end rallyClose briefFed held; bull-flatten into 30Y near 5%, repo soft, bills sticky in the cage
- Wed, May 06, 2026Close briefQRA dovish at the margin, ADP soft, Iran chatter a headfake, we fade today's rally into FOMC.
- Tue, May 05, 2026Morning briefFade the QRA knee-jerk; Hormuz is term premium, not Fed repricing
- Mon, May 04, 2026Morning briefStatus quo holds. Post-FOMC week, no fresh inputs force a re-baseline.
- Sun, May 03, 2026Close briefStatus quo holds. Carry post-FOMC priors into Monday's open.
- Fri, May 01, 2026Morning briefFrozen into 8:30 — payrolls calls the tape; risk skew tilts dovish
- Thu, Apr 30, 2026Morning briefFour FOMC dissents, sticky core, claims at lows — pay the front endClose briefHot PCE puts cuts back on trial — front end pays, long bond stays special
- Wed, Apr 29, 2026Morning briefFOMC week opens — priors carry; Skanda's preview locks in hawkish-pivot risk into the front end.Close briefHawkish day delivers — durables blowout, four-dissent Fed and Brent $118 reprice the front end; basis call closes the way it was supposed to.
- Tue, Apr 28, 2026Morning briefStatus quo holds — hawkish Fedspeak layer carries, plumbing thesis intact into the open.Close briefTGA peak rolls; reserves paid the tab — basis trade carries, front-end Warsh wildcard layered on hawkish drift.
- Mon, Apr 27, 2026Morning briefPost-tax-day funding pressure easing but SOFR still 2bp rich to EFFR — fade the squeeze.
- Sat, Apr 25, 2026Close briefTax-week funding bulge unwinds; SOFR 3.65 / GCF 3.69 — status quo holds into next week.
- Fri, Apr 24, 2026Close briefQuiet close — no desk inputs to mark against