Archive
Published notes
The 60 most recent published briefs, newest first. Morning and close for each trading day share a row.
- Fri, Sep 04, 2026Morning briefMorning desk continuity updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.Close briefHold the flattening lean into CPIExperimental senior preview — grading pending.
- Thu, Sep 03, 2026Morning briefMorning desk continuity updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.Close briefClose desk continuity updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.
- Wed, Sep 02, 2026Morning briefMorning desk continuity updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.Close briefClose operational updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.
- Tue, Sep 01, 2026Morning briefMorning desk continuity updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.Close briefClose operational updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.
- Mon, Aug 31, 2026Close briefClose operational updateExperimental senior preview — grading pending.
- Fri, Aug 28, 2026Morning briefCurve lifted a fraction across every tenor; we stay flat until next week's dataExperimental senior preview — grading pending.
- Wed, Aug 26, 2026Morning briefHold the 2s10s steepener into this morning's PCE
- Fri, Aug 21, 2026Morning briefFront end pinned, 2s10s back to 50bp: we keep the steepenerClose briefWe keep the 2s10s steepener; supply premium sits in the back end and the front held our line
- Thu, Aug 20, 2026Morning briefTrim the 2s10s steepener as the buyback eats half our bufferClose briefBuyback rally gone by the close; we keep the trimmed 2s10s steepener
- Wed, Aug 19, 2026Morning briefTerm premium is repricing the long end; we keep the 2s10s steepener into this afternoon's minutesClose briefTreasury's buyback bid and a soft 20-year offset; we hold the term-premium steepener
- Tue, Aug 18, 2026Morning briefWe keep the 2s10s steepener into Wednesday's 20yr auction and FOMC minutesClose briefWe keep the 2s10s steepener as the long end reprices term premium and the front stays anchored
- Mon, Aug 17, 2026Morning briefCarry the 2s10s steepener; the 2Y fell to 4.15%, well shy of the 4.25% breakClose briefWe hold the 2s10s steepener; today's widening came from the long end on term premium
- Fri, Aug 14, 2026Morning briefHold the 2s10s steepener; the 30Y tail cheapened duration while the front stayed pinnedClose briefWeak consumer bull-steepens the curve; we carry the 2s10s steepener
- Thu, Aug 13, 2026Morning briefStay in the 2s10s steepener; today's PPI is the only thing that breaks itClose briefPPI printed soft and the 30Y tailed; we stay in the 2s10s steepener
- Wed, Aug 12, 2026Morning briefKeep the 2s10s steepener into July CPI; funding calm, the break test fires on the printClose briefWe hold the 2s10s steepener after a soft July CPI; the break test didn't fire
- Tue, Aug 11, 2026Morning briefWe carry the 2s10s steepener into Wednesday's CPI; the front end didn't move overnightClose briefWe keep the 2s10s steepener; today's session left both break tests intact
- Mon, Aug 10, 2026Morning briefStay in the 2s10s steepener into CPI; the weekend gave us nothing to cut it onClose briefCook lowers the September hike bar; we hold the 2s10s steepener into Wednesday's CPI
- Fri, Aug 07, 2026Morning briefKeep the 2s10s steepener into payrolls, at half sizeClose briefPayrolls miss guts the September hike case; we hold the 2s10s steepener
- Thu, Aug 06, 2026Morning briefStay in the 2s10s steepener; Hormuz-inflation test held, payrolls is Friday's live riskClose briefSteepener stays into payrolls; both break tests held and the funding tightening carried no stress
- Wed, Aug 05, 2026Morning briefOvernight duration rally is an oil-and-Japan term-premium unwind; we hold the 2s10s steepenerClose briefFlat coupons and cheaper oil keep the 2s10s steepener on
- Tue, Aug 04, 2026Morning briefTreasury's account rebuild drains reserves and keeps the front end bidClose briefThe long-end selloff is term premium, and we keep the steepener.
- Mon, Aug 03, 2026Morning briefPost-FOMC duration move; we keep the term-premium steepenerClose briefISM's 55.6 beat firmed the front end while oil unwound the long-end bid; we hold the term-premium steepener
- Fri, Jul 31, 2026Morning briefThe hold paid; the back-end selloff is term premium and the front end stays anchoredClose briefFront end pinned, long end at 2007 highs: we keep the term-premium read
- Wed, Jul 29, 2026Morning briefFade the hike, hold the premium into a live Warsh presser; turn firm but orderly
- Tue, Jul 28, 2026Morning briefFade Wednesday's hike, keep the front-end premium: oil relief trimmed the tail, not the pathClose briefFront end keeps its hawkish premium into a coin-flip FOMC; we still fade Wednesday's hike and hold the premium
- Mon, Jul 27, 2026Morning briefFront end priced the hawk before Warsh speaksClose briefOil relief trimmed the tail; the front end kept its hawkish premium into Warsh
- Fri, Jul 24, 2026Morning briefFront end stays paid, the driver upgraded from oil premium to Fed pathClose briefFront end stays paid, the oil-under-$100 headline is noise, the services PMI beat is the trade
- Thu, Jul 23, 2026Morning briefClaims 187k moved our tell, the front end is now Fed-path, not just term premiumClose briefFront end holds paid, but oil is doing the lifting now, not conviction the Fed hikes
- Wed, Jul 22, 2026Morning briefCarry stays on; the oil bid is term premium, not a Fed holdClose briefToday's selloff is term premium riding oil, not a July hike, carry holds, front end is now the tell
- Tue, Jul 21, 2026Morning briefOne January bill still carries the whole story; we hold the carry stanceClose briefCarry holds: one January bill deepens again, funding stays soft, and the hikes the curve is pricing aren't in the fixings
- Mon, Jul 20, 2026Morning briefStanding view carries; one January bill is the only thing that movedClose briefOne bill moved, the market didn't, the January squeeze deepens, everything else holds
- Thu, Jul 16, 2026Close briefFirm data and a dovish-flank capitulation bury the PPI reprieve
- Wed, Jul 15, 2026Close briefPPI seals the front-end reprieve; the standing dovish view holds on all three break tests