Archive
Published notes
The 60 most recent published briefs, newest first. Morning and close for each trading day share a row.
- Fri, Jul 24, 2026Morning briefFront end stays paid, the driver upgraded from oil premium to Fed pathClose briefFront end stays paid, the oil-under-$100 headline is noise, the services PMI beat is the trade
- Thu, Jul 23, 2026Morning briefClaims 187k moved our tell, the front end is now Fed-path, not just term premiumClose briefFront end holds paid, but oil is doing the lifting now, not conviction the Fed hikes
- Wed, Jul 22, 2026Morning briefCarry stays on; the oil bid is term premium, not a Fed holdClose briefToday's selloff is term premium riding oil, not a July hike, carry holds, front end is now the tell
- Tue, Jul 21, 2026Morning briefOne January bill still carries the whole story; we hold the carry stanceClose briefCarry holds: one January bill deepens again, funding stays soft, and the hikes the curve is pricing aren't in the fixings
- Mon, Jul 20, 2026Morning briefStanding view carries; one January bill is the only thing that movedClose briefOne bill moved, the market didn't, the January squeeze deepens, everything else holds
- Thu, Jul 16, 2026Close briefFirm data and a dovish-flank capitulation bury the PPI reprieve
- Wed, Jul 15, 2026Close briefPPI seals the front-end reprieve; the standing dovish view holds on all three break tests
- Tue, Jul 14, 2026Close briefJune CPI broke the oil-and-Waller front-end trade; Warsh refused to call it
- Mon, Jul 13, 2026Morning briefNo new tape overnight, funding view carries, and the only live signal is one bill going specialClose briefFront end sold oil and Waller into CPI; the plumbing said the opposite
- Fri, Jul 10, 2026Morning briefOil keeps shouting, the front end keeps ignoring it, we hold the fadeClose briefFront end eased hard on the TGA drawdown; the oil fade paid and today's marginal driver is funding, not the Gulf
- Thu, Jul 09, 2026Morning briefOil's loud, the front end isn't, fade the stagflation repricing
- Tue, Jul 07, 2026Morning briefTurn's cleared, funding still boring, but the January bill got louder and the SOFR cushion is one bp
- Mon, Jul 06, 2026Morning briefTurn's cleared, funding's boring, one January bill is doing all the shoutingClose briefTurn's fully cleared, both break tests held, January bill louder but still caged
- Thu, Jul 02, 2026Morning briefQuiet open, plumbing reads calm, don't overread the 07-01 specialsClose briefFront-end firm after the turn, but it's collateral, not corridor
- Wed, Jul 01, 2026Close briefQuarter-end pop, not a regime break, we fade the funding spike into the open
- Tue, Jun 30, 2026Morning briefQuiet tape, priors carry; the only live variable is the 6/30 turn
- Mon, Jun 29, 2026Morning briefMaintenance tape, no re-baseline; tomorrow's quarter-end turn is the only live wireClose briefQuarter-end turn lands tomorrow into a thin buffer; the plumbing says contained, not cracked
- Fri, Jun 26, 2026Morning briefNo catalyst overnight; quarter-end and a fat bill special are the only live wiresClose briefQuarter-end firming, controlled, this is term premium in funding, not a Fed repricing
- Thu, Jun 25, 2026Close briefToday is a collateral story, not a macro one, bill specials are building, not clearing
- Wed, Jun 24, 2026Morning briefNo catalyst overnight; we'd stop staring at the macro and position the 06-30 turn
- Mon, Jun 22, 2026Morning briefCalm post-FOMC funding into the open; the quarter-end turn is the only thing that flips it
- Fri, Jun 19, 2026Morning briefDecision still dark in our feed, hold priors, fade the scarcity story
- Thu, Jun 18, 2026Morning briefHold's in the bag; the dots are the only trade todayClose briefFed held the corridor; the run-in tape was plumbing and term premium, not a Fed repricing.
- Wed, Jun 17, 2026Morning briefFunding firmed into the decision; the front end still isn't pricing cuts, fade the easing read
- Tue, Jun 16, 2026Morning briefCrude relief is real; the dovish front-end call is overcooked into Warsh
- Mon, Jun 15, 2026Close briefCrude break hands the front end its bid, we think Warsh runs against it Wednesday
- Fri, Jun 12, 2026Close briefLong end carried the tape; front end isn't sniffing a Fed turn
- Thu, Jun 11, 2026Close brief30Y eats a tail as foreign bid evaporates; belly still well-bid, rotational concession, not a duration repricing
- Wed, Jun 10, 2026Close briefForeign sponsorship fades the CPI scare, 10Y reopening's 78% indirect take is the day's load-bearing tell.
- Tue, Jun 09, 2026Close briefFlatteners into CPI: the front-end is doing the work, the long end is along for the ride
- Mon, Jun 08, 2026Close briefCurve flatter into CPI; the geopolitics is noise, the auction tape is the signal
- Fri, Jun 05, 2026Close briefHot headline, soft guts, we fade the front-end selloff
- Thu, Jun 04, 2026Close briefAuction-week flattener: front end takes the labor-plus-oil hit, new 10Y goes deep special
- Wed, Jun 03, 2026Close briefLoud headlines, quiet tape, we fade the stagflation panic into Friday
- Mon, Jun 01, 2026Close briefAuction week opens with geopolitics stacked on supply, long-end heavy, front-end anchored
- Thu, May 28, 2026Close briefSoft core PCE m/m bought the curve a bull-steepener; sticky 3m/6m annualized says don't chase it.
- Wed, May 27, 2026Close briefFront-end bid faded into the Waller/PCE wall; belly indigestion runs through the auctions
- Mon, May 25, 2026Close briefHoliday close, but tomorrow's tape is the one to position for: supply lands on an over-shorted curve with the plumbing still leaking lower.
- Wed, May 20, 2026Close briefHawkish minutes through a clean 20Y, we add to front-end payers and watch the dealer take
- Mon, May 18, 2026Close briefStatus quo into the auction block, specials map says demand is there, we'd fade any concession.
- Fri, May 15, 2026Morning briefStay paid in the front end, cuts are dead, hike optionality is aliveClose briefLong-end bear-steepens on Hormuz; front-end funding richens, energy/term-premium shock, not a growth scare.
- Thu, May 14, 2026Morning brief30Y prints 5%, dealers eat 11.7%, we're paying up for the steepener
- Wed, May 13, 2026Morning briefCPI is the trade today; the rest is positioning around the print.Close brief30Y prints a 5-handle, we read it as term premium, not regime change
- Tue, May 12, 2026Morning briefOil into CPI into supply, front end carries the bag this week
- Mon, May 11, 2026Close briefAuction week opens quiet, specials tape is the only thing talking.
- Fri, May 08, 2026Morning briefHormuz is the trade, claims is the trigger, front-end bid stays on through the 8:30 print.