Notes for Fri, Jun 19, 2026

FOMC outcome and SEP haven't reached our feed; funding shows no stress, so priors carry into the open.

The read

We don't have the decision. The June FOMC outcome and SEP printed Thursday, but neither has reached our feed, and every series we trust predates it, funding and the secured complex run only to Wednesday's 06-17 fix^[1], levels to 06-16^[2]. No Tier 1, no commentary, no observation updates since the close note. There's no sourced basis to reprice the front end this morning, so priors carry into the open.

On the publish clock: this fires at 7 AM, before NY Fed posts reference rates at 8. Thursday's SOFR drops at 8 AM, so the last fixed print we can cite is Wednesday 06-17. We re-baseline against the statement and the dots the moment they clear, and the administered anchor, IORB carries a 06-18 stamp^[3], is the first line we read off the decision.

Plumbing — nothing to chase

The collateral tape is quiet. Thursday's 06-18 securities-lending auction tops out at 6.4bp over floor on the 01/21/27 bill (912797TM9)^[4], and the next names sit at 6.0bp, the 5.000 05/15/46^[5] and the 3.375 02/29/28^[6]. Modest, issue-specific richness, not broad scarcity.

The load-bearing tell is what's rich: a front bill, not a benchmark coupon. Were the system grabbing for collateral into the turn, we'd see it in the breadth of specials and a firmer SOFR-IORB basis, not one bill 6bp through floor. RRP and the repo complex run to 06-17^[8][7] with nothing flagging strain. We fade any morning note calling collateral tight off this auction.

Stale into quarter-end — what we chase

One real gap: the reserve picture lags the funding picture by a week. TGA last printed 06-10^[9], with WALCL and reserve balances on the same 06-10 stamp^[11][10], while rates run to 06-17. We can't reconcile the reserve path against funding into June 30, and quarter-end pressure on SOFR and repo builds from here, we're reading the quantity side half-blind. First pulls today: fresher TGA and reserve balances, the next dealer-positioning print (OFR sits at 06-03^[12]), and the decision text itself. The contained-funding view breaks if the next TGA shows a sharp rebuild draining reserves into the turn.

Citations

1. [1]funding and the secured complex run only to Wednesday's 06-17 fix (last fixed SOFR print 2026-06-17) — NY Fed SOFR · Jun 17, 2026
2. [2]levels to 06-16 (2026-06-16) — FRED DGS2 · Jun 16, 2026
3. [3]IORB carries a 06-18 stamp (2026-06-18) — FRED IORB · Jun 18, 2026
4. [4]tops out at 6.4bp over floor on the 01/21/27 bill (912797TM9) (6.4 bp above floor) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912797TM9:2026-06-18
5. [5]the 5.000 05/15/46 (6.0 bp above floor) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:912810UV8:2026-06-18
6. [6]the 3.375 02/29/28 (6.0 bp above floor) — Observation · observation:seclend_observations:91282CQB0:2026-06-18
7. [7]RRP and the repo complex run to 06-17 (2026-06-17) — FRED RRPONTSYD · Jun 17, 2026
8. [8]the repo complex run to 06-17 (2026-06-17) — DTCC GCF repo · Jun 17, 2026
9. [9]TGA last printed 06-10 (2026-06-10) — Treasury General Account · Jun 10, 2026
10. [10]WALCL and reserve balances on the same 06-10 stamp (2026-06-10) — FRED WALCL · Jun 10, 2026
11. [11]reserve balances on the same 06-10 stamp (2026-06-10) — FRED WRESBAL · Jun 10, 2026
12. [12]OFR sits at 06-03 (2026-06-03) — OFR NYPD-PD_SB_T_TOT-A · Jun 3, 2026

Generated by Short Rates Desk. Informational only. Not investment advice.