Recession

4 contracts · $4.0M aggregate volume · freshest 32m ago

Contracts in recession

kalshiprimaryNBER-defined recession in 2026 (1.76M vol — flagship)$2.4M vol · updated 32m ago · source ↗
19.50%
polymarketprimaryUS recession by end of 2026 ($1.4M vol — flagship)$1.5M vol · updated 32m ago
17.50%
kalshisecondaryNext US recession starts Q1 2026 (78K vol)$81K vol · updated 32m ago · source ↗
5.60%
kalshisecondaryNBER-defined recession in 2027 (14K vol)$40K vol · updated 32m ago · source ↗
41.50%

Desk metrics for this bucket

The economic observations and citations the desk uses to think about recession will land here in a follow-up — relevant FRED series, observation deltas, and recent notes that referenced this bucket. For now use the contract list above plus the latest brief on the home page.