Recession

11 contracts · $5.2M aggregate volume · freshest 11m ago

Contracts in recession

kalshiprimaryStarts (2,510,618 vol, closes 2027-01-31)$2.9M vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
10.50%
polymarketprimaryUS recession by end of 2026? ($1,605,496 vol)$1.7M vol · updated 11m ago
10.50%
kalshiprimaryQ2 2025 (130,015 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$131K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
2.15%
kalshiprimaryQ4 2025 (95,904 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$97K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
6.20%
kalshiprimaryQ1 2026 (81,817 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$84K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
5.45%
kalshiprimaryQ3 2025 (80,023 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$83K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
1.65%
kalshiprimaryQ1 2025 (74,900 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$75K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
0.15%
kalshiprimaryYes (43,772 vol, closes 2028-01-31)$72K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
38.00%
kalshiprimaryQ4 2024 (43,385 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$45K vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
25.10%
polymarketsecondaryUK Recession in 2026? ($5,286 vol)$7K vol · updated 11m ago
26.00%
polymarketsecondaryJapan recession in 2026? ($2,662 vol)$3K vol · updated 11m ago
9.00%

Desk metrics for this bucket

The economic observations and citations the desk uses to think about recession will land here in a follow-up — relevant FRED series, observation deltas, and recent notes that referenced this bucket. For now use the contract list above plus the latest brief on the home page.