Recession

11 contracts · $6.0M aggregate volume · freshest 53m ago

Contracts in recession

kalshiprimaryStarts (2,510,618 vol, closes 2027-01-31)$3.4M vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
5.50%
polymarketprimaryUS recession by end of 2026? ($1,605,496 vol)$1.7M vol · updated 53m ago
7.00%
kalshiprimaryYes (43,772 vol, closes 2028-01-31)$353K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
23.00%
kalshiprimaryQ2 2025 (130,015 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$131K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
1.45%
kalshiprimaryQ4 2025 (95,904 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$97K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
2.40%
kalshiprimaryQ1 2026 (81,817 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$85K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
3.65%
kalshiprimaryQ3 2025 (80,023 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$83K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
1.75%
kalshiprimaryQ1 2025 (74,900 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$76K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
0.50%
kalshiprimaryQ4 2024 (43,385 vol, closes 2026-12-31)$45K vol · updated 53m ago · source ↗
1.70%
polymarketsecondaryUK Recession in 2026? ($5,286 vol)$10K vol · updated 53m ago
7.00%
polymarketsecondaryJapan recession in 2026? ($2,662 vol)$4K vol · updated 53m ago
8.00%

Desk metrics for this bucket

The economic observations and citations the desk uses to think about recession will land here in a follow-up — relevant FRED series, observation deltas, and recent notes that referenced this bucket. For now use the contract list above plus the latest brief on the home page.