Fed path
10 contracts · $7.3M aggregate volume · freshest 31m ago
Contracts in fed path
- 1.00%
- polymarketprimaryFed rate hike in 2026 ($940K vol)$1.6M vol · updated 31m ago54.50%
- polymarketprimaryFed lower bound reaches 2.75% before 2027 ($269K vol)$326K vol · updated 31m ago5.00%
- polymarketprimaryFed lower bound reaches 3.0% before 2027 ($248K vol)$269K vol · updated 31m ago7.00%
- polymarketsecondaryFed lower bound reaches 2.5% before 2027 ($182K vol)$197K vol · updated 31m ago4.45%
- kalshiprimaryFed upper bound above 3.50% by June 2026 (50K vol)$145K vol · updated 31m ago · source ↗98.50%
- 69.50%
- kalshisecondaryNumber of rate changes before 2027 = 0 (5.9K vol)$12K vol · updated 31m ago · source ↗48.40%
- kalshisecondaryNumber of rate changes before 2027 = 1 (1.5K vol)$5K vol · updated 31m ago · source ↗31.80%
- kalshisecondaryNumber of rate changes before 2027 = 2 (0.7K vol)$2K vol · updated 31m ago · source ↗13.90%
Desk metrics for this bucket
The economic observations and citations the desk uses to think about fed path will land here in a follow-up — relevant FRED series, observation deltas, and recent notes that referenced this bucket. For now use the contract list above plus the latest brief on the home page.