Fed path

7 contracts · $21.8M aggregate volume · freshest 11m ago

Contracts in fed path

  • kalshiprimaryHike 0bps (526,845 vol, closes 2026-07-29)$11.5M vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
    74.50%
  • kalshiprimaryCut 25bps (541,759 vol, closes 2026-07-29)$4.7M vol · updated 11m ago · source ↗
    1.00%
  • polymarketprimaryFed rate hike in 2026? ($2,101,327 vol)$4.6M vol · updated 11m ago
    71.50%
  • polymarketprimaryWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? ($328,801 vol)$340K vol · updated 11m ago
    1.55%
  • polymarketprimaryWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? ($274,070 vol)$291K vol · updated 11m ago
    3.05%
  • polymarketprimaryWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? ($197,632 vol)$206K vol · updated 11m ago
    3.85%
  • polymarketprimaryWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027? ($141,604 vol)$142K vol · updated 11m ago
    2.65%

Desk metrics for this bucket

The economic observations and citations the desk uses to think about fed path will land here in a follow-up — relevant FRED series, observation deltas, and recent notes that referenced this bucket. For now use the contract list above plus the latest brief on the home page.