Short Rates Desk
Sat, Apr 25, 2026

Notes for Sat, Apr 25, 2026

Close brief

· generated 20:28 ET

Tax-week funding bulge unwinds; SOFR 3.65 / GCF 3.69 — status quo holds into next week.

TGA drains $68B off the tax-week peak, GCF normalizes around 3.69, SOFR sets 3.65 with EFFR sticky at 3.64.

Tape

Front-end finished the week orderly. SOFR set at 3.65% Thursday (04-23)[3], one tick over EFFR at 3.64%[4], with BGCR/TGCR both 3.63%[5]. The 3.72% tax-day SOFR print on 04-15[7] is fully behind us — fixings have walked back to 3.63–3.65% and the SOFR-EFFR spread is back to +1bp from +8bp. GCF closed Friday at UST 3.687 / MBS 3.709[8], sitting on top of triparty and well below where the tax-week strain left us. No squeeze, no give-up — clean into the weekend.

TGA & flows

The tax-week refill is now visibly bleeding off. TGA peaked at $1,038B on 04-20[9] after climbing from $779B on 04-14[10] — roughly a quarter-trillion of cash pulled out of the system in four sessions. By 04-23 the balance was back to $969.8B[11], a $68B drain in three days. That cash returning to the market explains the orderly fade in repo and the SOFR set drifting back to the EFFR floor. Reserves should keep absorbing the rebound from here; bills paydown and benefit outflows do the work next week.

Positioning into the open

Carry priors. Funding has re-normalized post-tax — there is no new information forcing a re-baseline. Watch month-end (04-30) for a small bid in GCF and a possible 1-2bp SOFR uptick on the turn; the size of the move depends on whether TGA continues to bleed or stalls near $950B. Apollo, employamerica and the rest of the commentary feed had nothing on funding this session — macro narrative is dominated by FOMC preview (Skanda flags hawkish risk later this year) and credit/equity color, none of which moves the front end today. Stay neutral repo, lean fade any month-end SOFR pop unless TGA flatlines.

Citations

  1. [3]SOFR set at 3.65% Thursday (04-23) (3.65000%) — NY Fed SOFR · Apr 23, 2026
  2. [4]one tick over EFFR at 3.64% (3.64000%) — NY Fed EFFR · Apr 23, 2026
  3. [5]BGCR/TGCR both 3.63% (3.63000%) — NY Fed BGCR · Apr 23, 2026
  4. [7]The 3.72% tax-day SOFR print on 04-15 (3.72000%) — NY Fed SOFR · Apr 15, 2026
  5. [8]GCF closed Friday at UST 3.687 / MBS 3.709 (MBS 3.70900 / UST 3.68700) — DTCC GCF repo · Apr 24, 2026
  6. [9]TGA peaked at $1,038B on 04-20 ($1038035M closing) — Treasury General Account · Apr 20, 2026
  7. [10]climbing from $779B on 04-14 ($779506M closing) — Treasury General Account · Apr 14, 2026
  8. [11]By 04-23 the balance was back to $969.8B ($969844M closing) — Treasury General Account · Apr 23, 2026

Generated by Short Rates Desk. Informational only. Not investment advice.